Emigration and The Stable Population Model: Migration Effects on the Demographic Structure of the Sending Country

Abstract

This chapter aims to extend the stable population model by analyzing emigration from a below replacement fertility population. After presenting the mathematical model of a stable population with constant age-specific rates of emigration, I apply this model to a population with below replacement fertility, Romania and its emigration to Spain. The dependency ratios as well as the number in the staying and emigrant population are calculated at two future points in time (100 and 150 years). The analysis finds two rather unexpected results: (1) constant age-specific emigration rates slightly improve the dependency ratio of the aging sending population, and (2) the difference in size between the population with and without emigration is rather small.