Adaptive Importance Sampling with Forward-Backward Stochastic Differential Equations

Abstract

We describe an adaptive importance sampling algorithm for rare events that is based on a dual stochastic control formulation of a path sampling problem. Specifically, we focus on path functionals that have the form of cumulate generating functions, which appear relevant in the context of, e.g. molecular dynamics, and we discuss the construction of an optimal (i.e. minimum variance) change of measure by solving a stochastic control problem. We show that the associated semi-linear dynamic programming equations admit an equivalent formulation as a system of uncoupled forward-backward stochastic differential equations that can be solved efficiently by a least squares Monte Carlo algorithm. We illustrate the approach with a suitable numerical example and discuss the extension of the algorithm to high-dimensional systems.