Is a sustainable future possible?

Abstract

Simulations of the real economy at both global and national scales highlight the unsustainable path we're on - modelled respectively in The Limits to Growth (LtG) and the Australian Stocks and Flows Framework (ASFF). Global data on actual developments for 1970-2010 support the LtG scenario for business-as-usual that results in near-term collapse. Nationally, the calibration of the ASFF with historical data over six decades depicts how Australia's growth has led to tangled environmental and economic dilemmas. Explorations of Australia's future in the ASFF show that a sustainable pathway would require massive changes to infrastructure (for sweeping efficiency gains and renewable energy), a stabilised population (with fertility rates halved and zero net immigration), and transformed lifestyles (with consumption rates and the working week halved). Considering why sustainable pathways have not been adopted, a review is presented of analysis into the collapse of historical societies. This leads to a summary of recent innovative modelling by others on the critical role of social resistance to change associated with control by a powerful cohort.