Global prediction of geographical change of yellow crazy ant (Anoplolepis gracilipes) distribution in response to climate change scenario

Abstract

Yellow crazy ant (Anoplolepis gracilipes) is a notorious insect which has destroyed local ecosystems when invaded. According to changes in habitats of alien species caused by the recent climate change, the risk of introducing yellow crazy ant into new area has been increase. This study aimed to predict and compare future global distribution of yellow crazy ant simulated based on different climate change scenarios by using CLIMEX The simulation showed that Central Africa, South America, Oceania, and Southeast Asia might be exposed to the threat of invasion under the current climate. In addition, the type of climate scenarios resulted in quantitatively different climatic suitability, while qualitative patterns of predicted distribution were similar. In conclusion, this study illustrated the use of niche model provided by CLIMEX for predicting global yellow crazy ant distribution changing by climatic condition, suggesting its future application on risk assessment of invasive species and on analyzing climate change scenario.