Development and Validation of a Model for Postpancreatectomy Hemorrhage Risk

Abstract

Importance: Postpancreatectomy hemorrhage (PPH) due to postoperative pancreatic fistula (POPF) is a life-threatening complication after pancreatoduodenectomy. However, there is no prediction tool for early identification of patients at high risk of late PPH. Objective: To develop and validate a prediction model for PPH. Design, Setting, and Participants: This retrospective prognostic study included consecutive patients with clinically relevant POPF who underwent pancreatoduodenectomy from January 1, 2009, to May 20, 2023, at the University Hospital Mannheim (derivation cohort), and from January 1, 2012, to May 31, 2022, at the University Hospital Dresden (validation cohort). Data analysis was performed from May 30 to July 29, 2023. Exposure: Clinical and radiologic features of PPH. Main Outcomes and Measures: Accuracy of a predictive risk score of PPH. A multivariate prediction model - the hemorrhage risk score (HRS) - was established in the derivation cohort (n = 139) and validated in the validation cohort (n = 154). Results: A total of 293 patients (187 [64%] men; median age, 69 [IQR, 60-76] years) were included. The HRS comprised 4 variables with associations: sentinel bleeding (odds ratio [OR], 35.10; 95% CI, 5.58-221.00; P