On the COVID-19 Temporal Evolution in Brazil

Abstract

This paper has two main objectives. The first one is to present a new dynamic model that describes, with adequate precision, the temporal behavior of the coronavirus epidemic that currently occurs in Brazil. Every day, the number of new infections provided by the Brazilian Ministry of Health is taken into account. Thus, an assessment of the impact of social behavior on the evolution of the epidemic can also be made. The second objective is to analyze the need to develop a computational system, capable of simulating—with the Monte Carlo method—the dynamic behavior of epidemics allowing each individual to move through locations with different population densities.