Managing Risks of Climate Change on Irrigation Water in Arid Regions

Abstract

Abnormal changes in temperature, precipitation, atmospheric carbon dioxide, or solar radiation are examples of climate change that may affect irrigation water demand. Studies show an increasing trend in the earth’s surface temperature, with decreasing trends in rainfall. With most studies focused on predicting the extent of climate change, fewer studies focused on developing appropriate response strategies. This paper aims to propose a systematic approach to identify, analyze, and respond to the risks of climate change on irrigation water in arid regions using the Risk Management process. The compound effect of these risks was analysed using Monte Carlo Simulation, which indicated a 69% loss in crop production due to climate change at a 90% confidence level. The proposed responses to the risks of climate change include strategies to avoid, transfer, mitigate, and/or accept these risks. The study has made three contributions to the state of the art. First, to adopt a well-recognized risk management methodology in climate change studies. Second, to quantify the compound effect of climate change risks on irrigation water in arid regions. Third, to recommend a set of response strategies to help policymakers mitigate the inevitable harmful effect of climate change on irrigation water.