Dynamic modelling of personal protection control strategies for vector-borne disease limits the role of diversity amplification

Abstract

Personal protection measures, such as bed nets and repellents, are important tools for the suppression of vector-borne diseases like malaria and Zika, and the ability of health agencies to distribute protection and encourage its use plays an important role in the efficacy of community-wide disease management strategies. Recent modelling studies have shown that a counterintuitive diversity-driven amplification in community-wide disease levels can result from a population’s partial adoption of personal protection measures, potentially to the detriment of disease management efforts. This finding, however, may overestimate the negative impact of partial personal protection as a result of implicit restrictive model assumptions regarding host compliance, access to and longevity of protection measures. We establish a new modelling methodology for incorporating community-wide personal protection distribution programmes in vector-borne disease systems which flexibly accounts for compliance, access, longevity and control strategies by way of a flow between protected and unprotected populations. Our methodology yields large reductions in the severity and occurrence of amplification effects as compared to existing models.