Simulation of an uncertain emission market for greenhouse gases using agent-based methods

Abstract

The paper presents the problem of a simulation of the greenhouse gases emission permits market where only low accuracy emission amounts are known. An organization of the market with uncertain emissions is proposed and trading rules for individual market participants are discussed. Simulation of the market is based on a multi-agent system. Negotiation of purchase/sale prices between the parties are introduced, where the trading parties adopt one of two options: (i) bilateral negotiations, and (ii) sealed bid reverse auctions. Results of simulation runs show trajectories of transaction prices, as well as probability distributions of learning agents' bidding prices. © 2014 The Author(s).