A brief report on the COVID-19 pandemic and ideal family size in the United States

Abstract

Objective: This brief report explores whether the COVID-19 Pandemic impacted ideal family size in the United States. Background: Although COVID-19 negatively impacted short-term fertility expectations, preferences, and behaviors in the United States, it remains unknown whether the pandemic contributed to changes in family size ideals more broadly. Method: The sample consists of 1823 respondents from the General Social Survey (GSS) who were originally interviewed before the COVID-19 pandemic (in 2016 and 2018) and were re-interviewed in the first 6 months of the COVID-19 pandemic (in August/September 2020), a period when pandemic-related stress and uncertainty was particularly pronounced. A within-person fixed effects approach is utilized. Results: Findings from within-person fixed effects analyses suggested that the pandemic had no impact on the quantum of ideal family size responses. These findings were robust to alternative specifications and were similar to what was observed in a parallel analysis of how the Great Recession impacted ideal family size. Conclusion: Findings pointed to stability in ideal family size in the first 6 months of the COVID-19 pandemic in the US. Implications: Future work should explore the disjuncture between short-term fertility intentions and behaviors and longer-term family size ideals.