Novel nomogram for predicting risk of early postoperative small bowel obstruction after right colectomy for cancer

Abstract

Background: Early postoperative small bowel obstruction (EPSBO) is a common complication after colorectal cancer surgery. Few studies have specifically studied risk factors for early small bowel obstruction after right colectomy, especially in establishing predictive models. The purpose of the current study was to establish an effective nomogram to predict the incidence of EPSBO after right colectomy. Methods: The current study retrospectively analyzed data from a total of 424 patients who underwent right colectomy in a local hospital from January 2014 to March 2021. A logistic regression model was used to identify potential risk factors for EPSBO after right colectomy. A nomogram was established by independent risk factors, and the prediction performance of the model was evaluated using an area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and calibration chart. Results: A total of 45 patients (10.6%) developed early small bowel obstruction after right colectomy. Male sex, emergency operation, history of abdominal surgery, open surgery, long operative time, anastomotic leakage, and preoperative albumin were closely related to EPSBO. Analysis of postoperative rehabilitation indices showed that EPSBO remarkably slowed the postoperative rehabilitation speed of patients. Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that male sex, open surgery, operative time, and anastomotic leakage were independent risk factors (P < 0.05), and the operation time had the greatest impact on EPSBO. On the basis of multivariate logistic regression, a nomogram was constructed, which showed moderate accuracy in predicting EPSBO, with a C-statistic of 0.716. The calibration chart showed good consistency between the predicted probability and ideal probability. Conclusion: The current study constructed a nomogram based on the clinical data of patients who underwent right colectomy, which had moderate predictability and could provide reference value for clinicians to evaluate the risk of EPSBO.