Evidence-Based Robust Optimization of Pulsed Laser Orbital Debris Removal Under Epistemic Uncertainty

Abstract

An evidence-based robust optimization method for pulsed laser orbital debris removal (LODR) is presented. Epistemic type uncertainties due to limited knowledge are considered. The objective of the design optimization is set to minimize the debris lifetime while at the same time maximizing the corresponding belief value. The Dempster–Shafer theory of evidence (DST), which merges interval-based and probabilistic uncertainty modeling, is used to model and compute the uncertainty impacts. A Kriging based surrogate is used to reduce the cost due to the expensive numerical life prediction model. Effectiveness of the proposed method is illustrated by a set of benchmark problems. Based on the method, a numerical simulation of the removal of Iridium 33 with pulsed lasers is presented, and the most robust solutions with minimum lifetime under uncertainty are identified using the proposed method.