Estimating the arrival time of earth-directed coronal mass ejections at in situ spacecraft using Cor and hi observations from stereo

Abstract

Predicting the arrival time and transit speed of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) near the Earth is critical to understanding the solar-terrestrial relationship. Even though STEREO observations now provide multiple views of CMEs in the heliosphere, the true speeds derived from stereoscopic reconstruction of SECCHI coronagraph data are not quite sufficient for accurate forecasting of the arrival time at Earth of a majority of CMEs. This uncertainty is due to many factors that change CME kinematics, such as the interaction of two or more CMEs or the interaction of CMEs with the pervading solar wind. In order to understand the propagation of CMEs, we have used the three-dimensional triangulation method on SECCHI coronagraph (COR2) images and geometric triangulation on the J-maps constructed from Heliospheric Imagers HI1 and HI2 data for eight Earth-directed CMEs observed during 2008-2010. Based on the reconstruction, and implementing the drag-based model for the distance where the CMEs could not be tracked unambiguously in the interplanetary (IP) medium, the arrival time of these CMEs have been estimated. These arrival times have also been compared with the actual arrival times as observed by in situ instruments. The analysis reveals the importance of heliospheric imaging for improved forecasting of the arrival time and direction of propagation of CMEs in the IP medium. © 2013. The American Astronomical Society. All rights reserved.