Long-term reliability analysis of a microgrid on isolated mode using CPN formalism

Abstract

It is well-known that the high penetration of Distributed Energy Resources (DERs) can be troublesome because of their unpredictable behaviors. In this context, renewable energy source (RES) appears as one of the most random component, since, in general, they are weather-dependent. The present paper develops a methodology to evaluate the reliability impacts of RES penetration in microgrid’s distribution system. For this evaluation, was used the Colored Petri Nets (CPN) formalism and event-driven analysis, in order to formulate the stochastic behaviors and simulate the system. To avoid the complexity on modeling a microgrid, the agent approach was used, which permits to manage each component as a unique entity, and assemble the whole system using the communication between the agents. Concerning the validation of the proposed methodology, a comparison between the results of CPN modeling and Monte Carlo simulation is done by means of statistical analysis.