Climate-Induced Challenges for Wetlands: Revealing the Background for the Adaptive Ecosystem Management in the Biebrza Valley, Poland

Abstract

In this chapter we analyse observed and prospective climate changes in the Biebrza Valley (NE Poland), in order to describe potential challenges for the adaptive management of valuable ecosystems and habitats, with consideration of stakeholder pressures. Historical, temporal changes in precipitation and dynamics of flooding within the riparian wetlands are preliminarily analysed in order to derive possible trends of changes. Prospective changes in air temperature and precipitation for the time horizon 2070–2100 derived from ten different GCM-RCM ensembles are referred to values measured in the Biebrza Valley in 2000–2011, in order to obtain prospective absolute dimensions of climate change which enforce challenges for ecosystem adaptation and stakeholder reaction. The research indicated that the climate change in the Biebrza Valley is likely to entail the ongoing decrease in summer sums of precipitation, increased frequency of extreme rainfall events in the summer and the increase of the average monthly air temperature. We conclude that in certain cases the same climate-related impacts are either negative or positive in both socio-economic and environmental dimensions. Therefore, an integrated adaptation approach in wetland management is needed in order to buffer and mitigate the possible direct and indirect negative consequences of climate change for both habitats and stakeholders.