Using history to plan the future of old-growth ponderosa pine

Abstract

Historical forest records, combined with the Forest Vegetation Simulator and a geographic information system for a land planning area on the Kaibab National Forest in northern Arizona, can suggest management approaches to restoring old-growth forest structures. Our analysis indicated that although more than 50 percent of ponderosa pine stands in the planning area are at or near an old-growth stage, they are at historically high tree densities. Stand-replacing wildfires have recently burned some old-growth stands. Silvicultural methods to restore desired old-growth structure and reduce fire danger can be evaluated with easy-to-use forest simulation models and validated with available historical and ground truth data.