Future perspectives on regional and international food security: Emerging players in the region: Uzbekistan

Abstract

In the light of a rising world population, the Eurasian wheat belt is one of the regions that could mobilise its agricultural production capacity to help meet the increasing demand for food and animal feed. The Republic of Uzbekistan is thus seen as one of the emerging players in the field, and has turned from a wheat importer into an exporting country after the independence. Grounded on a thorough analysis of post-1991 data and available literature on wheat prices, imports and export volumes, and agricultural policies, this chapter aims to illustrate trends in wheat production and consumption, thus outlining the potential for further increases in wheat production, corresponding scenarios for export dynamics and the role of policy in this regard. The chapter suggests that Uzbekistan has the potential to emerge as an important supplier of (low-quality) wheat to neighbouring countries. However, it is difficult to assess potential export increases, because the state procurement mechanism has a strong role and intervenes in the supply chains. Improving the existing procurement mechanisms and introducing market-based incentives could help to overcome remaining production inefficiencies, thus ensuring that wheat supply chains are sustainable and that excess production is available for export.