Stochastic finite-fault simulation of the 2017 Jiuzhaigou earthquake in China

Abstract

In this study, the strong ground motion of the Jiuzhaigou Ms7.0 earthquake, which occurred in northern Sichuan, China, was simulated based on the stochastic finite-fault method. The earthquake event was recorded by 66 strong ground-motion stations operated by the China Strong Motion Networks Center. We simulated 11 records selected within 200 km source-to-site distance. According to previous studies and empirical relationships, we estimated the region-specific input parameters. The zero-distance kappa filter obtained had a value of 0.0206 s. Two different source models were applied in this study: the random slip model and specified slip model. Using the stochastic finite-fault method, we simulated the PGA, Fourier spectrum and response spectrum at all stations. The stochastic simulated result based on the specified slip distribution models had no significant bias at most stations. Using a model with a random slip distribution, the simulated response spectra also matched the observed result, which indicated that the stochastic finite-fault method is not very sensitive to the input slip distributions and fault dimensions. We divided the study area into 1116 sites to simulate the spatial distribution of PGA based on the two models. The simulated maximum intensity of the epicentral area reached level IX, which was similar to the observed maximum intensity and indicated that the simulated result could be used in prediction of an imminent earthquake disaster. For future earthquake prediction, seismic hazards could even be estimated quickly without obtaining detailed information about the fault plane.