The effect of South African dividend and capital gains taxes on share prices and investor expected returns

Abstract

We examine the effect of South African taxes, specifically the secondary tax on companies (STC) and the dividends tax (DT) that replaced it, as well as capital gains tax (CGT), on investor measures of expected return and firm value. The discussion, findings, and models presented in this study are entirely original in the field of South African corporate finance research. We model the relationship between STC, CGT, and expected return and use this relationship to formulate an hypothesis of the expected behaviour of ex-ante measures of implied cost of capital for a sample of listed South African companies. We calculate these measures by formulating a unique South African version of the residual income valuation model (RIVM) and then regress derived measures of the implied equity premium on historical measures of dividend yield, ultimately concluding that investors appear to recognise the net tax benefit of dividends and capitalise this benefit into stock prices. Finally, we examine the expected position of each of these areas in light of the proposed shareholder dividend tax regime. © by author(s).