The Influence of Organisational and Structural Parameters of Commercial Fleets on the Substitution Potential of Battery Electric Vehicles

Abstract

In this paper 969 commercial fleets in the City of Hamburg, Germany, are analysed to investigate the influence of organisational parameters, like vehicle use, as well as structural parameters, such as vehicle types and fleet size, on the potential of battery electric vehicles to substitute conventional ones. The evaluation of the 8,466 reported vehicles shows a theoretical substitution potential, as 90 % of the reported vehicles were below 3.5 tonnes gross vehicle mass and 75 % were used for trips below 140 km a day as the number of the average maximum range of those BEVs available in the market. For those occasions where the range of a BEV will not suffice, alternative mobility options or transport modes still seem a prerequisite for the deployment of BEVs, especially since 70 % of the investigated fleets had no more than four vehicles and little vehicle redundancy. But, 48 % of the companies do also use other transport modes during working hours such as public transport or bicycles. In addition, vehicle replacement cycles proved to be another influential structural parameter. It is dictating the possible rate of penetration of BEVs in the fleets and limiting the substitution potential of the investigated fleets to 40 % over the next 3 years.