Adaptation according to mode of climate variability: A case study from canada’s western interior

Abstract

Successful economies, and sustainable communities, are adapted to the historical mean state of the climate of the region and, to a large extent, to the historical interannual and seasonal variability, with which there is much experience. This adaptation involves familiar strategies, for example, irrigation, and the corresponding policies, programs, and best practices. There is less experience, however, and therefore fewer adaptation options, in dealing with decadal to multi-decadal modes of climate variability and with unprecedented climate extremes. This scale of variability and extreme events requires a different suite of adaptations that generally are not supported by existing policy and programming. This asymmetry in historical and planned adaptation is illustrated with a case study from Canada’s western interior, which has a climate characterized by differences in temperature and precipitation between seasons and years that are among the largest on earth. This chapter examines the interannual to multidecadal variability of the past millennium, extremes of the past 100 years, and projections of climate change. Municipalities and industry must recognize these multiple modes of variability as they pursue adaptation planning to minimize the impacts of climate change, including unprecedented drought and excess moisture.