The impacts of potential climate change and climate variability on simulated maize production in China

Abstract

This study assessed the impacts of potential climate change on maize yields in China, using the CERES-Maize model under rainfed and irrigated conditions, based on 35 maize modeling sites in eastern China that characterize the main maize regions. The Chinese Weather Generator was developed to generate a longtime series of daily climate data as baseline climate for 51 sites in China. Climate change scenarios were created from three equilibrium general circulation models: the Geophysical FIuid Dynamics Laboratory model, the high-resolution United Kingdom Meteorological Office model, and the Max Planck Institute model. At most sites, simulated yields of both rainfed and irrigated maize decreased underclimate change scenarios, primarily because of increases in temperature, which shorten maize growth duration, particularly the grain-filling period. Decreases of simulated yields varied across the general circulation model scenarios. Simulated yields increased at only a few northern sites, probably because maize growth is currently temperature-limited at these relatively high latitudes. To analyze the possible impacts of climate variability on maize yield, we specified incremental changes to variabilities of temperature and precipitation and applied these changes to the general circulation model scenarios to create sensitivity scenarios. Arbitrary climate variability sensitivity tests were conducted at three sites in the North China Plain to test maize model responses to a range of changes (0%, +10%, and +20%) in the monthly standard deviations of temperature and monthly variation coefficients of precipitation. The results from the three sites showed that incremental climate variability caused simulated yield decreases, and the decreases in rainfed yield were greater than those of irrigated yield.