The effect of temperature on mosquito population dynamics of Aedes aegypti: The primary vector of dengue

Abstract

Dengue is the most prevalent vector-borne disease, transmitted primarily by the bite of the Aedes aegypti mosquito. The rapid spread of the dengue viruses indicates a strong dependency on the seasonal variation, particularly changes in temperature. In this study, a new model for the dengue transmission is proposed as our baseline model by incorporating the immature stage of the mosquito population and considering the dependence of the entomological parameters of Aedes aegypti with respect to the temperature. The stage-structured mosquito population is analyzed to simulate the effect of the temperature on the vectorial capacity of the mosquitoes. The qualitative analysis of the stage-structured model is performed in terms of the parameter, Rm, which is defined as the basic offspring of mosquitoes. Finally, the numerical simulations of the autonomous model with temperature variation ranging from (20°C-36°C) are presented.