Where diseases and networks collide: Lessons to be learnt from a study of the 2001 foot-and-mouth disease epidemic

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Abstract

This paper uses a graph-theoretical approach to investigate the properties of the observed network of disease transmission in the 2001 foot-and-mouth epidemic in the United Kingdom. This analysis revealed both global and local heterogeneity in the contact pattern between the infected premises in the first 3 weeks of the disease. In particular, the global heterogeneity contributed to the failure of the culling strategy imposed by the UK government. However, a more effective strategy targeting selective deletion of key premises in the network was not available once the epidemic had begun. We recommend that post-hoc analyses of this sort should become part of preventative and proactive policy rather than part of a reaction to an ongoing crisis. © 2005 Cambridge University Press.

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Shirley, M. D. F., & Rushton, S. P. (2005). Where diseases and networks collide: Lessons to be learnt from a study of the 2001 foot-and-mouth disease epidemic. Epidemiology and Infection, 133(6), 1023–1032. https://doi.org/10.1017/S095026880500453X

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