Thomas Bayes

Abstract

The Rev. Thomas Bayes (1702--1761) was the eldest son of Joshua Bayes, a minister in the Nonconformist church. He was probably educated at Coward's Academy. After assisting his father as pastor in Hatton Garden, London, he became, in 1731, Presbyterian minister at Mount Sion, Tunbridge Wells where he remained until his death on 17 April 1761. His fame today rests entirely on one paper, found by his friend Richard Price amongst Bayes' effects after his death and presented to the Royal Society: Bayes (1763). (A convenient recent reference is Bayes, 1958.) The paper appears to have aroused little interest at the time and a proper appreciation was left to Laplace. Even today there is much discussion over just what Bayes meant, but the fact that so much interest is taken in a paper over 200 years old testifies to the importance of the problem and the brilliance of Bayes' argument.