Will Tropical Rainforests Survive Climate Change?

Abstract

Tropical forests account for over 50 % of the global forested area and forest carbon stock. Although the deforestation rate is tending to decline, forests are confronted with climate change, which could profoundly modify their functioning. The migration of species that took place during the Pleistocene is no longer possible because human activities have markedly altered tropical landscapes. Forest species will thus have to adapt (or not) particularly to the increased water stress. Forest management methods must incorporate new knowledge on the vulnerability of species and evolve in order to reduce potentially negative interactions between disturbances and the water deficit. A key challenge is to identify trade-offs between logging in water deficit situations and the increased forest fire risk. In drylands, factors related to climate change are meshed with other change factors, but inno- vations in the management of woodlands could ensure their long-term persistence.