Fuzzy sets and rough sets for scenario modelling and analysis

Abstract

Both fuzzy set theory and rough set theory play an important role in data-driven, systems modelling and analysis. They have been successfully applied to building various intelligent decision support systems (amongst many others). This paper presents an integrated utilisation of some recent advances in these theories for detection and prevention of serious crime (e.g. terrorism). It is shown that the use of these advanced theories offers an effective means for the generation and assessment of plausible scenarios which can each provide an explanation for the given intelligence data. The resulting systems have the potential to facilitate rapid response in devising and deploying preventive measures. The paper also suggests a number of important further challenges in consolidating and refining such systems. © 2009 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg.