Between structural realism and liberalism: Japan's threat perception and response

Abstract

In this article, I argue that Japan's threat perception has evolved in response to the balance of power and perceived intent. Russia, North Korea, and China are all nuclear powers with sizable conventional forces, but the level of threat varies over time, with Japan's response pattern changing from Russia to North Korea to China in recent years. Japan remains a quiet member of the war on terror, but it faces little direct threat from global terrorism and groups like al Qaeda and the Islamic State. Japan's threat response is unique; it skews toward weapons acquisition and enhanced logistics, limiting to a minimum constitutional reform and changes in national security institutions. The well-known antimilitarist norm of the postwar era may be eroding, but it still puts a heavy brake on many "revisionist" projects, including constitutional amendment of Article 9. As a result, Japan's response to the threats has been modest, doing little to prevent China's rise, while growing more dependent on the United States.