Gap models across micro- to mega-scales of time and space: examples of Tansley’s ecosystem concept

Abstract

Background: Gap models are individual-based models for forests. They simulate dynamic multispecies assemblages over multiple tree-generations and predict forest responses to altered environmental conditions. Their development emphases designation of the significant biological and ecological processes at appropriate time/space scales. Conceptually, they are with consistent with A.G. Tansley’s original definition of “the ecosystem”. Results: An example microscale application inspects feedbacks among terrestrial vegetation change, air-quality changes from the vegetation’s release of volatile organic compounds (VOC), and climate change effects on ecosystem production of VOC’s. Gap models can allocate canopy photosynthate to the individual trees whose leaves form the vertical leaf-area profiles. VOC release depends strongly on leaf physiology by species of these trees. Leaf-level VOC emissions increase with climate-warming. Species composition change lowers the abundance of VOC-emitting taxa. In interactions among ecosystem functions and biosphere/atmosphere exchanges, community composition responses can outweigh physiological responses. This contradicts previous studies that emphasize the warming-induced impacts on leaf function. As a mesoscale example, the changes in climate (warming) on forests including pest-insect dynamics demonstrates changes on the both the tree and the insect populations. This is but one of many cases that involve using a gap model to simulate changes in spatial units typical of sampling plots and scaling these to landscape and regional levels. As this is the typical application scale for gap models, other examples are identified. The insect/climate-change can be scaled to regional consequences by simulating survey plots across a continental or subcontinental zone. Forest inventories at these scales are often conducted using independent survey plots distributed across a region. Model construction that mimics this sample design avoids the difficulties in modelling spatial interactions, but we also discuss simulation at these scales with contagion effects. Conclusions: At the global-scale, successful simulations to date have used functional types of plants, rather than tree species. In a final application, the fine-scale predictions of a gap model are compared with data from micrometeorological eddy-covariance towers and then scaled-up to produce maps of global patterns of evapotranspiration, net primary production, gross primary production and respiration. New active-remote-sensing instruments provide opportunities to test these global predictions.