Assessment of economic efficiency and risk of the project using simulation

Abstract

The article aimed to present an approach to assessment of economic efficiency and risk of the investment project using Monte Carlo simulation. In this case study, post-audit was presented after 4th year of investment operation. A multilevel post-audit was conducted by combining economic efficiency assessment and the Monte Carlo simulation technique. In the first phase, the most serious factors causing Discounted Economic Value Added (DEVA) deviation from the planned value were identified. In the second step, the correction of the selected input variables, and calculation of the corrected indicator DEVA were performed. The third step was forecasting the DEVA indicator conducted by Monte Carlo simulation. Simulation results were used for assessing the critical factors and their impacts on the DEVA indicator. In the end, on the basis of analyses, calculations and simulations, the results were compared, and the relevance of the presented methodology for practice was discussed.