Vulnerability and the probability of households having access to water in locations with extreme weather in Mexico city

Abstract

We carry out a statistical analysis to estimate the probability of households having access to water and identify the most vulnerable people in counties with extreme weather in Mexico City. We use a methodology that combines the use of spatial, climate, and household survey data. Our results suggest that locations in 10 out of 16 counties in Mexico City are currently affected by extreme conditions and in addition show a lower probability of having water access at home. From the 8.8 million people living in Mexico City, about 3,142,660 are living in areas with decreasing mean rainfall over time, "scarce rainfall zones," and approximately 1,500,100 in areas with an increasing mean temperature over time, "high temperature zones." Only five counties are currently affected by scarce rainfall and high temperature at the same time; which implies that there are around 508,840 highly vulnerable people in Mexico City affected by both types of extreme conditions. We also find that by coincidence, the odds of having water at home are much lower for people living in six counties with extreme conditions and their odds are reduced between 20 and 30 %. Such counties also have high poverty levels, so water scarcity conditions are reinforcing the vulnerability of the population. Knowing the precise spatial location and the number of affected people will definitively contribute to improve the implementation of public policies and the effectiveness in the use of resources devoted to problems like water access in the face of extreme events.