Spatial Aspects of the American Fertility Transition in the Nineteenth Century

Abstract

The American fertility transition is unusual in comparison with historical transitions in other currently developed nations. The decline came very early, dating from about 1800 and took place from very high levels of fertility, a crude birth rate of 55 and a total fertility rate of about 7.0 for the white population in 1800. Further, the fertility transition began long before the sustained decline in mortality, dating from approximately the 1870s. Finally, the transition occurred in a predominantly agrarian and rural nation, although birth rates declined in both rural and urban places. Using a new database that supplements basic population census measures with other demographic, agricultural and manufacturing data, age-specific child-woman ratios can be calculated at the county level files for 1800 to 1860. This chapter examines patterns of geographic dispersion of white child-woman ratios, estimates structural spatial regression models and assesses spatial autocorrelation and clustering. Spatial autocorrelation was significant for variation by longitude (east-west) but not latitude (north-south). Low fertility counties were clustered in 1,800 and 1,810, while high fertility counties were more often found together later. Finally, fertility was less spatially patterned in longer settled and newly settled counties than in transitional areas.