Dynamics of investor spanning trees around dot-com bubble

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Abstract

We identify temporal investor networks for Nokia stock by constructing networks from correlations between investor-specific net-volumes and analyze changes in the networks around dot-com bubble. The analysis is conducted separately for households, financial, and nonfinancial institutions. Our results indicate that spanning tree measures for households reflected the boom and crisis: the maximum spanning tree measures had a clear upward tendency in the bull markets when the bubble was building up, and, even more importantly, the minimum spanning tree measures pre-reacted the burst of the bubble. At the same time, we find less clear reactions in the minimal and maximal spanning trees of non-financial and financial institutions around the bubble, which suggests that household investors can have a greater herding tendency around bubbles.

Figures

  • Fig 1. The number of investors in Nokia stocks during the period 1998–2002 and the change in the number of investors across the sixmonth time windows. (a) The number of investors N>(T) who traded the Nokia stock at least on T different days during the whole time period 1998–2002 (i.e., a non-normalized complementary cumulative distribution). (b) The evolution of the number of investors trading Nokia in the six-month time windows for households, non-financial institutions, and financial institutions. The numbers of investors in each category |nt| vary widely across categories, and they are normalized by the average numbers of investors in the full time period h|nt|i. (c) The change in the number of investors is measured using the Jaccard coefficient for different investor categories. The value of J(t) is higher (lower) the more (less) similar the consecutive networks are in terms of nodes in them (see Eq 1). Results for each time window in panels (b) and (c) are plotted at the end of the window. That is, each point is estimated with data over the previous 126 trading days (6 months). The estimation windows are rolling by one month, and the resulting points are joined by solid lines. In panels (b) and (c), the green dotted vertical line in the figures represents the highest stock price of Nokia in the sample period, and the blue curves (with axis on the right) represent the Nokia stock price. In all panels, the lime-green curve corresponds to financial institutions, the cyan curve to households, and the orange curve to non-financial institutions.
  • Fig 2. The change in investor correlations of Nokia stock trading across the six-month time windows during 1998–2002. (a) The average change in correlations between two consecutive time windows Jedges(t) (see Eq 2 in the Methods section). (b) The average edge weight, or correlation, in each time window. The green dotted vertical line represents the highest stock price of Nokia in the sample period, and the blue curves (with axis on the right) represent the Nokia stock price. The lime-green curves correspond to financial institutions, the cyan curves to households, and the orange curves to non-financial institutions.
  • Fig 3. The minimum and maximum spanning trees of all investors. (a) Backward looking average weight of the minimum spanning tree, Lmin(t), for the merged set of investors with six-month time windows during 1998–2002 (brown line). The green dotted vertical line in the figures represents the highest stock price of Nokia in the sample period, and the blue curves (with axis on the right) represent the Nokia stock price. Maximum spanning trees between (b) July 8, 1999 and January 4, 2000 (before the crisis), (c) January 5, 2000 and July 6, 2000 (during the crisis), and (d) July 7, 2000 and January 4, 2001 (after the crisis). The cyan nodes represent households, the orange nodes non-financial institutions, and the lime-green nodes financial institutions. The sizes of the nodes are based on the volume traded by the investor during the period. However, one should not compare the sizes of nodes between different networks, as the sizes are not comparable across panels.
  • Fig 4. Backward looking average weight of the (a) minimum spanning tree, Lmin(t), (b) maximum spanning tree, Lmax(t) for different investor categories with six-month time windows during 1998–2002. The green dotted vertical line in the figures represents the highest stock price of Nokia in the sample period. The lime-green curve corresponds to the plot for Finnish financial institutions, the cyan curve corresponds to the plot for Finnish households, and the orange curve corresponds to the plot for Finnish non-financial institutions.

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CITATION STYLE

APA

Ranganathan, S., Kivelä, M., & Kanniainen, J. (2018). Dynamics of investor spanning trees around dot-com bubble. PLoS ONE, 13(6). https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0198807

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