The impacts of climatic warming on cereal crop production in japan

Abstract

The purpose of this study is to assess the possible impacts of climatic warming on rice, maize and wheat production in Japan. Crop models (CERES-Rice, -Maize and -Wheat) were used to simulate the possible changes in crop yields and growing season lengths under different climate change scenarios derived from three general circulation models (GCMs). Increased temperature resulted in decrease in simulated crop yields and shortened growing season lengths in many regions under the present management systems. While the direct beneficial effects of CO2 may compensate for the yield decreases in central and northern Japan, the effects did not compensate for the yield decreases in Kyushu. The changes in crop yield varied largely among the GCM scenarios. In general, the GISS scenario is very favorable for crop production in Japan, but the UKMO scenario is not favorable, showing a considerable yield decrease. Wheat production would be very vulnerable to any GCMs climate change scenarios. Early planting and irrigation are possible adaptation strategies of the management systems to climate change. In most cases, simulated yields increased under climate change conditions if an early planting date was adopted; however, in Kyushu because of high temperature stress, an earlier planting did not improve simulated yields, and the introduction of new cultivars better adapted to the climate change conditions would be required. © 1995, The Society of Agricultural Meteorology of Japan. All rights reserved.