The effect of regular-season rest on playoff performance among players in the national basketball association

Abstract

Background: There has been speculation that rest during the regular season for players in the National Basketball Association (NBA) improves player performance in the postseason. Purpose: To determine whether there is a correlation between the amount of regular-season rest among NBA players and playoff performance and injury risk in the same season. Study Design: Cohort study; Level of evidence, 3. Methods: The Basketball Reference and Pro Sports Transactions archives were searched from the 2005 to 2015 seasons. Data were collected on players who missed fewer than 5 regular-season games because of rest (group A) and 5 to 9 regular-season games because of rest (group B) during each season. Inclusion criteria consisted of players who played a minimum of 20 minutes per game and made the playoffs that season. Players were excluded if they missed >10 games because of rest or suspension or missed ≥20 games in a season for any reason. Matched pairs were formed between the groups based on the following criteria: position, mean age at the start of the season within 2 years, regular-season minutes per game within 5 minutes, same playoff seeding, and player efficiency rating (PER) within 2 points. The following data from the playoffs were collected and compared between matched pairs at each position (point guard, shooting guard, forward/center): points per game, assists per game, PER, true shooting percentage, blocks, steals, and number of playoff games missed because of injury. Results: A total of 811 players met the inclusion and exclusion criteria (group A: n = 744 players; group B: n = 67 players). Among all eligible players, 27 matched pairs were formed. Within these matched pairs, players in group B missed significantly more regular-season games because of rest than players in group A (6.0 games vs 1.3 games, respectively; P ≤.0001). There were no significant differences between the groups at any position in terms of points per game, assists per game, PER, true shooting percentage, blocks, steals, or number of playoff games missed because of injury. Conclusion: Rest during the NBA regular season does not improve playoff performance or affect the injury risk during the playoffs in the same season.