Projected Changes in Thermal Indices Related to the Agriculture and Energy Sectors

Abstract

The increase in air temperature by 2100 projected by climate models will affect the value of thermal characteristics that are important from the point of view of the agriculture and energy sectors. Noticeable changes for each of the nine calculated indices are already visible in the so-called near future (2021–2050). At the end of the current century, they are projected to increase so dramatically that they will significantly affect the analysed sectors. The growing season in projections based on the RCP 8.5 scenario may be extended in some regions of Poland by up to 2 months and the frost-free period in almost the entire territory of Poland by at least 40 days. The annual number of growing degree days for both temperature thresholds (5 °C and 10 °C) will also increase significantly. From the energy consumption point of view, the positive effect of warming will be a significant reduction in the demand for energy used to heat buildings (heating degree days). This positive impact can, however, could be reduced by a large increase in energy demand due to refrigeration and air conditioning (cooling degree days). Even in warmer climates, there will still be some days with a high demand for energy for heating. An increase in the demand for energy for cooling during the warmest days may overload energy production and transmission systems.