Land Cover Changes in Selected Areas Next to Lagoons Located on the Southern Coast of the Baltic Sea, 1984–2021

Abstract

The aim of the study is the evaluation of land cover changes in selected areas next to three lagoons (the Curonian Lagoon, the Vistula Lagoon and the Szczecin Lagoon) located on the southern coast of the Baltic Sea (in Lithuania, Russia, Poland and Germany) from 1984 to 2021. The changes are evaluated using multispectral (visible light—RGB and near infrared—NIR) satellite images from the Landsat 5 and Sentinel-2 sensors. Due to their high importance for ecosystem services, two main land cover types are evaluated, i.e., forest area and inland water reservoirs. The classification of the images is performed using a random forest algorithm. Areas of water bodies and forests are evaluated for the years 1984 and 2021. During period 1984–2021, positive changes in land cover are observed in all three regions included in the study. In almost all parts, with the exception of the Polish part of the area located next to the Szczecin Lagoon, of these regions, an increase in forest area is observed. The increase ranges from 0.1% (Poland, area next to the Vistula Lagoon) to 1.2% (Germany, area next to the Szczecin Lagoon). The area of inland water reservoirs has not changed significantly in the long term. Despite the global warming, no reduction in the area of these water reservoirs is observed, even new seminatural reservoirs have been created in some parts of the study area.