Projecting the need for hip replacement over the next three decades: Influence of changing demography and threshold for surgery

Abstract

Objectives - To estimate the requirement for total hip replacement in the United Kingdom over the next three decades. Methods - Projection of age and sex specific hip replacements in the UK over 10 year intervals taking account of demographic change and the extrapolation of arthroplasty rates from Sweden; a country with recently introduced guidelines. Results - Assuming no change in the age and sex specific arthroplasty rates, the estimated number of hip replacements will increase by 40% over the next 30 year period because of demographic change alone. The proportionate change will be substantially higher in men (51%) than women (33%), with a doubling of the number of male hip replacements in those aged over 85. Changes in the threshold for surgery may increase this further - up to double the current number. Conclusion - A sharp rise in hip replacements will be needed to satisfy needs in the UK population over the next 30 years.