Integrated Coastal Assessment: The Way Forward

Abstract

The preceding chapters have laid out the range of challenges of coastal simulation to support future coastal management, with a particular focus on understanding erosion, flood and habitat changes and their links to coastal management. The detailed case study in Norfolk places the theory and generic principles in a real-world management context that is particularly relevant to the UK, while international case studies (Chap. 13 ) have introduced a range of alternative challenges and perspectives. The Tyndall Centre’s coastal programme has highlighted how the management of the coastline needs to reflect the connectivity between the various geomorphological features, natural processes, engineered structures and socio-economic drivers. Moreover, it is crucial to understand the trade-offs that result from different management strategies. In the Norfolk case, the analysis strengthens the argument for a change in the widespread historic management approach of “hold the line” towards allowing as much of the coastline as possible to return to a more natural and dynamic configuration. However, this is challenging for coastal governance, raising questions about how to address the concerns of directly and indirectly affected landowners and householders on the eroding coast. Given the large uncertainties in projections of future sea-level rise and other relevant climate factors, and the extent to which this influences the effectiveness of different management strategies, an adaptive (or learning) strategy that is regularly reviewed in the light of new information and an evolving governance/society context is most appropriate. To this end, the Tyndall Coastal Simulator approach of coupling visualisation tools with simulation models provides a powerful tool for analysing present and future trajectories of coastal evolution. This has been shown to motivate and engage policy makers and stakeholders in an on-going dialogue about the management choices ahead. This Chapter reviews the key contributions of the Tyndall Coastal Simulator in the context of UK coastal management, and how coastal management and policy formulation may be informed by the evidence and engagement philosophy it encapsulates. The overall approach is distilled for wider application and a set of key issues that are important to consider are identified. The notion of living with uncertainty and the need for adaptive management is a core issue. How the future tools and process of UK coastal management might evolve in the light of the Tyndall Coastal Simulator results is examined, including incremental and more radical developments.