China and arms control: a learning process

Abstract

Any discussion of China's approach to arms control policy, in terms of whether or not it has acted responsibly, needs to be placed in context. And the proper context is Sino-US relations and US attitudes towards China as a great power. It is only the US that has vigorously scrutinized China's arms control behavior. It is only the US that has accused China of not complying with its arms control commitments and it is only the US that has the capacity to make life difficult for China on arms control issues. Looking at the material on China and arms control, most of it comes from the US government or The Washington Post. Indeed, it is only the US, with its national technical means of intelligence, (that is, high resolution satellites), and its intelligence network in China, that has the ability to tick or cross the boxes on China's compliance with arms control regimes like the Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR). Sometimes the US gets it right and sometimes, relying on circumstantial evidence, gets it wrong.