Meteorological Forecasting

Abstract

Meteorological forecasts provide a basis for extending the lead time provided by hydrological forecasting models, beyond that available from observations of rainfall and other parameters. In addition to the general weather forecasts provided to the public, meteorological services often provide a range of more specialized products tailored to different users, and a number of these are potentially of use in hydrological modeling. Examples include short-range forecasts of rainfall for flood forecasting and water supply operations, seasonal forecasts for drought and agricultural applications, and air temperature and other inputs for demand forecasting. This chapter provides an introduction to the main techniques used in meteorological forecasting, including nowcasting, Numerical Weather Prediction, and statistical methods. Several approaches are also discussed for post-processing outputs to the scales of hydrological interest, including dynamic downscaling, statistical post-processing and weather matching. An introduction is also provided to the topics of data assimilation and forecast verification.