Rough times ahead for NATO

Abstract

There are three structural reasons that have not much to do with the person of Donald Trump that explain why NATO will have hard times to survive. First, alliances only make sense in times of war. Against all odds and against what Realists had predicted, NATO remained into existence after the Cold War. This is an anomaly in international politics that in all likelihood will end in the demise of NATO. Second, the major factor of change in international politics in general, according to Realists, is the shifting balance of power between the major powers in the world. These days, the most important shift is the rise of China and the relative decline of the US, especially economically. This change has implications for foreign policy. The odds are that China will become more assertive, first in the region and thereafter maybe globally. US foreign policy will probably become more isolationist, which has immediate repercussions for US allies. US allies - including NATO allies - will be left more on their own. Third, European defense integration does not stand still, on the contrary. It can become a serious alternative for NATO.