Modelling the global photovoltaic potential on land and its sensitivity to climate change

Abstract

Solar photovoltaic (PV) energy is fundamental for decarbonizing the global economy and supporting the renewable energy transitions that are needed to combat climate change. Potential solar power production at a given location is a function of climatic variables that will change over time and so climate change needs to be accounted for in PV potential estimation. The future potential of PV in response to climate change has not previously been assessed consistently and globally across alternative scenarios. We develop global gridded estimates of PV potential between 2020 and 2100 as a function of spatial, climatic, technological and infrastructural conditions. We find a global technical potential of 175 111 T W h yr−1 in 2050, which changes by between ca. −19% (high-emission scenario) and +16% (low-emission scenario), with larger geographic variations within these scenarios. We perform a sensitivity analysis to identify key uncertainties and assess the scope for emerging PV technologies to offset negative climate impacts. We find that suboptimal orientation and temperature losses have the largest negative effects (reducing PV potential by up to ca. 50% and ca. 10% respectively), but that new technologies may be able to generate gains of more than 200% if successfully deployed worldwide. Solar power can make an important contribution to energy production over the coming decades and the demand for renewable energy could be met by PV deployment on between 0.5% and 1% of the global land area, provided its deployment accounts for the location-specific impacts of climate change.