What Do We Know About the South African Business Cycle?

Abstract

A significant amount of macroeconomic research on the South African business cycle has appeared since the late 1990s, mostly with the turning point cycles identified by the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) as an empirical starting point. Following the established nomenclature of the international literature—we summarize key trends and conclusions in this literature along three lines: firstly, studies aimed at identifying and describing key properties of South African business cycles, secondly, studies concerning the forecasting of South African cycles and, thirdly, studies on the relationship between stabilization policy and the South African cycle. This thematic summary pays special attention to cyclical developments after the financial crisis and identifies key gaps in the state of knowledge.