Les enjeux de la dépendance de la filière de blé en Algérie: Analyse par asymétries de réponses de l’offre dans la chaîne de valeur

Abstract

The aim of this study is to examine empirically the dependency issues of the wheat sector in Algeria on the international market, using time series and prediction techniques. The study investigates the adjustment process of supply to price disequilibria in order to assess the functioning of the wheat sector in domestic production and import sectors. The time interval for the study runs from 1965 to 2019 using official data. The asymmetric error correction model is used highlighting asymmetries in the response of supply to prices. The main results of the model and the predictions made for 2040 explicitly stipulate that the challenges facing the wheat sector in Algeria are: a growing inability to meet domestic demand for durum wheat, a total disappearance of local production of common wheat, and a more exaggerated resort of the import option for the wheat. Implications for public policy are derived in terms of food security.