An attribution analysis of soybean price volatility in China: global market connectedness or energy market transmission?

Abstract

This study examines the impact of international soybean price and energy price on Chinese soybean price. Applied to monthly data over the period of 2007–2017, results show that both international soybean price and energy price have significant impacts on Chinese soybean price, while the impact from global soybean market tends to be more profound. First, we find that in the long run the cumulative pass-through elasticity of Chinese soybean price to international soybean price is greater than the elasticity to international energy price. Second, in the short run, international soybean price shocks transmit more quickly to Chinese soybean price. Our results shed new light on the determinants of soybean price volatility in China, and provide meaningful implications on the price risk management for market participants and policy makers.