Evaluation of the PETE Phenology Modeling System for Integrated Pest Management of Deciduous Tree Fruit Species

Abstract

The Predictive Extension Timing Estimator (PETE) model is a generic phenology model developed initially at Michigan State University as part of a national integrated pest management research project on deciduous tree fruits. Since 1976, the PETE model has been applied to 12 deciduous tree fruit pests and evaluated or used in 10 states of the USA. Applications for pests of other crops both nationally and internationally are under development. Estimated current benefits using PETE models are $1.2 million per year in the 10 states, but benefits in the future are projected at $31 million per year. Aspects of computer implementation, biological and environmental monitoring, personnel use, and future needs for PETE model developments and improvements are discussed.