Statistical Modeling and Analysis of Satellite Failure Based on 2-Weibull Segmented Model

Abstract

Statistical modeling and analysis of satellite failure is an effective way to master the satellite operating status, and the results can provide important theoretical basis for the performance improvement of satellite reliability. In view of the dual-period characteristics of satellite failure distribution, a 2-Weibull segmented model for statistical modeling of satellite failure has been proposed in this paper. In order to improve the robustness of the parameter estimation for 2-Weibull segmented model, a parameter estimation method for 2-Weibull segmented model based on least squares Hough transform algorithm is continued to be proposed in this paper. And the feasibility and effectiveness of the parameter estimation method are verified by simulation experiments. The 2-Weibull segmented model is used for statistical modeling of 1584 satellite failure samples. The results show that, compared with the traditional single Weibull distribution model, the 2-Weibull segmented model proposed in this paper improves the fitting accuracy of satellite failure distribution by 46.15%.