Pneumonia incidence rate predictive model of nonlinear time series based on dynamic learning rate BP neural network

Abstract

Objective to explore predictive method of nonlinear time series based on using BP neural network. Methods Based on dynamic learning rate BP artificial neural network with Hyperbolic Tangent function as activation function has been used. Results Build two kinds of ANN forecast models of pneumonia incidence rate. They are better than traditional method on prediction precision. Conclusion BP artificial neural network can be used to forecast for disease incidence rate. © 2010 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg.