Spatial and temporal changes in temperature, precipitation, and streamflow in the Miyun Reservoir Basin of China

Abstract

With the influence of global climate warming, the responses of regional hydroclimatic variables to climate change are of great importance for water resource planning and management. The evolution of precipitation, mean temperature, and runoffat different timescales, was investigated using the Mann-Kendall test from 1969 to 2011 in the Miyun Reservoir Basin, China. In addition, three precipitation indices and different precipitation gradeswere also considered. Annual precipitation had a non-significant decreasing trend, flood precipitation trend was significantly decreasing with a magnitude of 18.50 mm/10 years, and non-flood precipitation trend was significantly increasing with a magnitude of 6.91 mm/10 years. Precipitation frequency in flood season featured a significantly decreasing trend. Meanwhile, flood precipitation intensity for large rain (25 ≤ p < 50 mm/day) and non-flood precipitation amount for medium rain (10 ≤ p < 25 mm/day) also showed significant increasing trends. The mean temperature exhibited significant upward trends during the year, in flood season, and in non-flood season with rates of 0.36 °C/10 years, 0.32 °C/10 years and 0.38 °C/10 years, respectively. The magnitude of the mean temperature increase in the non-flood season was greater than in the flood season. Runoffexperienced continuous and significant downward trends of 1.6 × 108 m3/10 years, 1.1 × 108 m3/10 years and 0.40 × 108 m3/10 years, respectively, during the year, in flood season, and in non-flood season. The decreased annual streamflow was more obvious after 2000 than before. The results obtained in this study could be used as references for decision-making regarding water resource management in the watershed.